Falling Without Consequence: A Critique of Liability and Litigation Risk in the Age of Megaconstellations

According to the International space law’s liability regime, which was built in 1972 for a world where a handful of states launched using some small, large and trackable satellites. It was not built for a world in which a single operator can place tens of thousands of small satellites into the low Earth orbit. This orchestrated the colliding of two satellites for the first time in 2009. These generated thousands of new fragments overnight. This single incident led to the imposition of debris-mitigation obligations by the national regulators which necessitated the demand for international laws. The article adopts a doctrinal and case-study methodology, analysing the Liability Convention of 1972, the Registration Convention 1975, and the IADC and UN COPUOS debris-mitigation guidelines. This article examines whether the Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects 1972, and the soft-law debrismitigation architecture that has grown up around it, remains adequate to this reality, with particular attention to the disadvantages this creates for African states. This was juxtaposed against the only state-to-state claim ever settled under the Liability Convention. This arose from the 1978 crash of the nuclear-powered satellite Cosmos 954 over Canada, and two recent, unresolved debris-fall incidents in Uganda (2023) and Kenya (2024). The article finds that even a paradigm case of absolute liability, Cosmos 954, produced a compromised, politically negotiated settlement rather than a vindicated legal entitlement. This same weakness has left the 2023 Ugandan and 2024 Kenyan incidents without compensation, an acknowledgment of responsibility, or in Kenya’s case a confirmed launching state, more than a year after each occurred. The shortcomings falls hardest on states that have not ratified the full suite of space treaties, lack domestic debris-insurance requirements, or lack the institutional capacity to trace and pursue a claim, a condition the article termed ‘liability dependency’. The article recommends that African states prioritise ratification of the Liability and Registration Conventions where they have not already done so. It further suggests that the African Union establish a coordinating body to assist member states in identifying launching states and pursuing claims on a continental rather than ad hoc basis. The authors observed that national space legislation require debris insurance as a condition of launch and satellite-hosting licences. It is further suggested that African states seek active participation in the UN COPUOS and IADC processes that now set the practical rules of debris governance.

Keywords: space debris; liability; litigation risk; megaconstellations; Liability Convention; Artemis Accords; Nigeria; Africa