Rainfall Pattern and Nigerian Agricultural Value Chain: The Case of Cocoa Production in Etung, Cross River State, Nigeria.

This study empirically examines the relationship between rainfall pattern and value chain in cocoa production in Etung, Cross River State, Nigeria. It employed time series data obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture, Calabar and the Nigeria Metrological (NIMET) station, Ikom, Cross River State. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests were used within the framework of the error correction mechanism (ECM) for data analysis. The chi-square statistical tool was also employed to establish the nexus between the various stages in the cocoa value chain and its output. The result shows that annual rainfall, duration of rainfall and annual rainfall intensity has much impact on cocoa production. The result further revealed that the various components of the cocoa value chain such as production, fermentation, and drying of cocoa beans, marketing of cocoa, as well as the manufacturing and consumption of cocoa beans were equally found to have impacted on cocoa output in the area. The study recommends, inter alia, that the cocoa value chain in Etung can be enhanced by adopting drought-tolerant cocoa species such as amazon forester and prinitario groups by farmers. The cocoa value chain can be sustained by introducing irrigation farming to supply enough water during dry season.

Key words: Nigerian agricultural value chain, cocoa production, rainfall pattern and intensity.